Franklin:?Buddy was electric against the Dogs, collec

No player personifies the mix of scouting hype and fantasy production quite as well as Andrew Luck, who has been deemed the next superstar NFL quarterback since his days at Stanford, and nothing he has done since has removed that narrative.Not even a horrific 2015 season, which many attribute to injuries and a poor Indianapolis Colts offensive line, could quiet the crowds convinced that Luck is Peyton Manning in his prime, just waiting for another healthy season. In seven games last season, Luck threw 12 interceptions and completed only 55.3 percent of his passes. His 74.9 passer rating was better than only Nick Foles and Manning.But its not as if inefficiency is a new thing for Luck. In fact, his fantasy value has long been driven by his volume, not his efficiency.Among players with more than 30 games played since Lucks debut in 2012, only Blake Bortles, Geno Smith, Eli Manning and Matt Cassel have thrown more interceptions per game, and Luck is outside the top 25 in passer rating. If you prefer adjusted net yards per attempt from Pro Football Reference (and I do) as a sign of overall passing game health, he ranks 17th among QBs with 30 or more appearances since 2012, behind Foles, Alex Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick.But prior to his disastrous 2015 campaign, Luck did post two very good fantasy seasons, which saw him carry quite a few of his drafters to victory. So what fueled his success, and why should we be worried it isnt something he will automatically regain and sustain?Feasting on cupcakesLuck and the Colts have been the beneficiaries of one of the easiest divisions in football for quite some time. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans have been two of the worst franchises in football this decade (32nd and 28th in win percentage since 2011). The Houston Texans fell off a cliff and are slowly working their way back. The Colts, on the other hand, have finished second or better in the division every season since Luck was drafted, and every year since 2001, with the exception of the year Peyton Manning sat out due to his neck injury.If we look at Lucks stats against his AFC South rivals compared to his stats against out-of-division opponents, we can see that he has been a beneficiary of the easy schedule. Since the start of the 2013 season, which coincided with Lucks ascension to the top of the fantasy charts, he has a 97.1 passer rating and a 3.25 TD/INT ratio when facing AFC South opponents, but a 84.9 rating and a 1.79 TD/INT rate against everyone else.If we single out just his two most productive seasons, heres how the numbers stack up:Its worth noting that his out-of-division passer rating in that span ranked 17th in the NFL, behind the likes of Josh McCown, Jay Cutler and Ryan Tannehill.In other words, Luck was more prone to mistakes and significantly less efficient when facing non-AFC South opposition. Efficiency is a measure of how well a player does on a per-opportunity basis, while volume is how many opportunities he receives. Multiply one by the other, and you have overall fantasy production.But Luck hasnt been traded, and the NFL hasnt realigned, so why would I be worried?The Jaguars are rapidly stocking up talent on defense, and should be one of the leagues most-improved units on that side of the ball. The Titans have also been working to improve their defensive presence, and the Texans still have J.J. Watt, arguably the most dominant defensive player in the league.And the NFL schedule allows for only six games in the division! Banking on solid production in six weeks from a top-50 draft choice in fantasy doesnt seem like a wise investment at all.Under pressureEven if you dont buy into these splits and think Lucks production will balance out, theres another reason to be concerned, and its somewhat linked to the concerns referenced above about how the defenses in his division have improved.Can the Colts keep Luck healthy and upright? Even if they can, will he be more comfortable under pressure, or will he be under pressure significantly less often?Luck was right around league average in terms of the number of passes thrown while under pressure in 2013 and 2014, but jumped up to fourth in 2015. Clearly, the Colts did a poor job of protecting him, leading to the injuries that caused him to sit out nine games.However, his ability to navigate the pocket was viewed as a strong suit coming out of college, and Ive witnessed what good Andrew Luck can do when presented with a crowd of linemen in front of him. He has the vision, presence and agility to dash and slide between bodies and make good throws downfield.But that doesnt happen often enough to provide production when under pressure. In 2015, Luck was 24-of-80 with six interceptions when under pressure, good for a rating of 24.9. Only Ryan Mallett had a worse passer rating in such situations. And while it seems unfair to pick on Lucks worst season (which is a small sample size, to boot), its not completely out of line with his career production under pressure.Luck completed only 37 percent of his 244 passes while facing rushers in 2013 and 2014, and earned a 54.6 passer rating. That ranked him 17th among QBs over that span, and puts him on par with names like Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne. And while Drew Brees also was ranked in this neighborhood during those two seasons, notable names like Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning all had ratings between 71 and 90 while under duress.The Colts did invest in the offensive line this offseason, drafting a first-round center and loading up on other candidates to compete for jobs in training camp. But theres nothing guaranteeing a solid pass-blocking situation for Luck this season, and even if he gets a league-average rate of protection, he still showed in 2013 and 2014 that hes average or worse when dealing with incoming defenders.Reasons to doubtEven during his two best 16-game seasons, his combined numbers ranked 10th in yards per dropback, 10th in TD/INT ratio, 10th in passer rating and ninth in average net yards per attempt. He was fourth in fantasy points per game among QBs during that span, but its clear that those numbers are driven more by volume than they are by efficiency.Following a season in which he took too many hits and was constantly hurt or speculated to be hurt, the Colts are going to have to try something else to keep their franchise QB upright and feeling healthy.If that means any reduction in either quantity or quality of his volume (depth of throws, instructions to throw it away more often, not being allowed to run), Lucks overall fantasy value will sink quickly.We also have to assume that Lucks 2015 struggles were almost entirely due to injury, and that he can bounce back and continue to develop as a quarterback.With so many strong QB options out there -- seven active quarterbacks have averaged 17 or more fantasy points per game since the start of 2013, with four above 19 -- and a few candidates poised to leap into the top tier moving forward (Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston), Lucks risk doesnt justify his ADP. Even as the QB5, being picked in the top 50, hes going 30 picks ahead of Carson Palmer, who outdid him in every way last season, as well as 10 picks ahead of Brees, who has similar concerns but performed better than Luck last season and has a longer track record of fantasy success.Youre likely taking him ahead of WR2 and RB2 candidates like Eric Decker, Randall Cobb, Golden Tate, Jeremy Hill and Dion Lewis, who play at positions that are much more difficult to fill on draft day and as the season rolls on. And while you can debate the volume or efficiency of those players all youd like, the depth at QB compared to the lack of depth and increased roster requirements at the running back and receiver positions means I simply cannot risk Lucks volume slipping at the cost of a potentially top-10 running back or receiver. Authentic Custom Athletics Jersey . 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The bye rounds have now concluded and the top seven sides (yes, you read that correctly) are split by just one win.The shortened round 15 kicked off on Thursday night for the second successive week with the?Eagles belting the Bombers to ensure the top eight maintained a two game advantage over the chasing pack.?Friday night saw?Port Adelaide claiming the four points over Richmond for the second time in 2016 and now the Power seem the only side that can realistically push themselves into finals contention.The Gold Coast Suns were able to snap a 10-game losing streak when they got the better of a disappointing St Kilda outfit, before the Western Bulldogs stunned Sydney at the SCG in a thrilling four point win which will please ladder leaders Hawthorn who remain a game clear on top.?Arch-rivals Carlton and Collingwood played out a snoozefest on Saturday night, but the Magpies were able to make amends for their round seven loss to the Blues and ran out 12 point winners. It was the first time since 1966 that both sides failed to kick 60 points in their blockbuster clash.Adelaide overcame a gallant Melbourne on Sunday afternoon to extend their winning streak to six. The Demons played bold, exciting football, but couldnt match the firepower of the Crows who booted their 100 points in a match for the 11th time this year.HEROESThe Bulldogs selection committee:?The Dogs swept in the changes after their poor outing against Geelong prior to the bye. Out went Tom Campbell, Fletcher Roberts, Mitch Honeychurch, Josh Dunkley (all omitted) and Bailey Williams (knee). In came Jason Johannisen, after missing 9 games, Easton Wood, who had missed a month of football along with triple ACL victim Clay Smith, Lukas Webb and veteran Will Minson. All the inclusions played important roles as the Dogs won a last-gasp thriller at the SCG. Johannisen of course kicked the match-winner seconds before the final siren, but Wood added vital leadership and class with 11 intercepts, Minson battled hard in his first senior game of the season, while Smith showed just why he is so highly regarded with six tackles to go with 16 touches. It was a bold move by the Dogs to make so many changes pre-match; they then produced a statement performance to inflict the first loss for the seasoned Swans on their home deck in eleven outings.Travis Boak:?Boak has been criticised this season, having failed to reach the heights he has in previous years. But with Ports finals hopes on the line against Richmond on a drizzly Friday night in Adelaide, he stood up. It was a real captains game, featuring 26 possessions, a huge 11 tackles and two goals, and especially notteworthy after the clubs leaders had been challenged in the lead-up to the contest.dddddddddddd Boak was hard and clean in the slippery conditions and really set the tone for his side, which outhunted the Tigers.Gold Coasts spine:?Any good side needs to have a strong list, particularly through the spine. Before feasting on the Saints on Saturday, the Suns had suffered 10 straight losses, with poor form and injury concerns hampering them all season. But in Stephen May, Rory Thompson, Aaron Hall, Tom Lynch and the emerging Peter Wright, Gold Coast have a spine that should hold them in good stead for years to come. Wright was particularly impressive against St Kilda with three goals and 10 marks, and he will be a terrific foil for Lynch, who is without doubt one of the best key forwards in the competition.VILLAINSSt Kildas away form:?What happens to the Saints as soon as they leave the cosy confines of Victoria? So far this season, theyve been largely uncompetitive interstate - losing by 33, 3, 103, 88 and now 40 points. Against the Suns on Saturday, they looked off from the first minute, lacking energy and making sloppy mistakes. Luckily for Alan Richardson and Co. the Saints dont travel outside of Victoria for the rest of the year but if they want to take the step from a promising team to a genuine finals contender, they need to address this inconsistency.Sydneys reliance on Lance Franklin:?Buddy was electric against the Dogs, collecting 21 disposals, 10 marks and booting five goals. He almost single-handedly dragged the Swans over the line, but the club needs to be careful in not becoming too Buddy-centric. Sydney only had five goal kickers against the Bulldogs, with several players missing very gettable shots on goal. They are missing Kurt Tippett massively and a few forwards are down on previous form. Franklin is red-hot but he needs more help especially as they prepare for the formidable defences of Geelong and Hawthorn in the next fortnight.Carlton vs. Collingwood:?Over the years, this has always been a game to look forward to - two genuine rivals who detest each other and go toe-to-toe for a full four quarters. But what a fizzer it was at the MCG on Saturday night. It really was a forgettable game of football. Both sides made shocking errors, but I guess it was no surprise that it was a clash between 13th and 14th on the ladder. Only the debut of third-generation Blue Jack Silvagni and the Collingwood skipper Scott Pendlebury, who looked a class above, provided any highlight. ' ' '